Ghosts of Climate Future?

I hope everyone had a good holiday season. My family enjoyed a trip through the Colorado and Rio Grande river basins – from Tucson through northern Arizona and into southern Colorado, and then all the way from the headwaters of the Rio Grande to southern New Mexico. Our quest was to find snow and to play in the snow, and we did ok; we had fun. But, it was pretty clear that it wasn’t a good snow year. Interestingly, the last good snowstorm was before we left in December, and it has been pretty dry ever since in the headwaters of the Colorado.

If you have been following my tweets (@TucsonPeck), you know many of the details, but at present, much of the upper Colorado River basin is suffering for a lack of the usual snowpack. The SNOTEL snow monitoring sites show much of the upper basin is well below normal in terms of snow, and the NOAA Colorado River Basin water supply forecast for the month is also looking red and yellow (below normal). Moreover, we have La Ninã conditions in the tropical Pacific, which means the odds don’t favor above normal snow in the Southwest for the most of the season. Of course, we could have an exception to this general rule of thumb. But the prudent thing is to prepare for a bad snow year, and hope for a good one.

And, it could be worse: the Sierra Nevada of California is really suffering, and I tweeted on December 28^th about how snowpack (and skiing) in Scotland is becoming more bleak with global warming. Reports from back east also make the ski season look grim. Fortunately, when I say or write things about drought, it often starts to snow or rain like crazy! Let’s hope for snow!

I also tweeted about how the warm temperatures made snowmaking tough this fall, and how at least one Colorado mountain town was dealing with a water shortage. More ski areas are getting serious about reducing their carbon emissions – they understand what is at stake for them. Unfortunately, the bigger groups of people who should care are not paying attention. Sure, skiers like me might have to suffer some, but the BIG story is that we’re starting 2012 with a decent chance that water supplies, not just in the mountains, could be tighter in the year – and years – to come.

Warmer temperatures and snow-laden storms that track further north than usual have both been projected by climate scientists. These projections appear to be coming true, and the last couple months are a nice example. Climate science is also clearly pointing to less water in our rivers as we let climate change go unchecked. From what I’ve seen of science in the pipeline, the story is only going to get worse as the science gets tighter. The Colorado and Rio Grande will both likely see long-term reductions in average flow, and the Southwest (West Texas to California) will see a more limited water supply. That’s on average – don’t forget that it is also looking like the threat of drought is going to get worse as the Earth warms up.

2011 was also a pretty exceptional drought year too. That’s another story, but it should also serve as a reminder for the future.

The 2011-2012 holiday weather was a sign of bad things to come. Still, it can’t hurt to hope for more snow!