Our Feverous Earth and Who We Should Consult for Treatment

Many may have already seen the video released by NASA last week, but just in case, here it is – an animation of how surface air temperatures have changed around the globe since 1880 (you can find the original article here):

Multiple scientific organizations around the world keep track of the global temperature history, and each of the histories shows the same thing: the Earth’s atmosphere has warmed dramatically since the start of the global thermometer record, no doubt about it.

Please watch the video, and as you do, consider several scientific realities. First, the warming over the last 130 years is clearly—no serious person doubts this—global in scope. Second, note that each year or decade isn’t always warmer than the next, and that different parts of the globe exhibit different patterns of warming. This is to be expected—natural variability is also important, and interacts with the global warming trend to give us the climate change we observe. Third, the warming really picks up after the 1980s, especially in the high northern latitudes and the Arctic, but also for much of North America.

Watch the video a second time and keep an eye on the pattern of change in the western U.S., and in particular the Southwest. Note the video maps average annual temperature anomalies (compared to the period 1951 to 1980). There’s no doubt about it, our part of the world has warmed up like almost all others. Parts of the West have warmed about 2°F, and this warming has contributed to less spring snowpack in the Colorado River Basin, and less runoff into the great reservoirs on the Colorado upon which a huge number of Southwesterners depend. Moreover, this warming and associated snowpack reduction has contributed to unprecedented forest die-off in our region, as well as record amounts of wildfire (see earlier blog).

Now watch the video a third time and imagine what TEN times more warming will look like as the patterns amplify over the next 100-200 years. The entire map will be deep red, much hotter than it is in 2011.  What will that mean for the future generations who will inherit the Southwest? What will that mean to their snow and water supply? What will it mean for the forests and other landscapes in the region? If you are thinking “holy cow,” then you’re like me. You’re concerned. You realize that this is something we have to take seriously.

What should we do? How do we decide, among all the different voices out there, whether or how to act in the face of a warming Earth? Consider a common analogy. Imagine you’ve had a high fever for a while, and you’re finally giving in and going to the doctor. What do you want to know? You know you have a fever, and you don’t need the doctor to confirm that. Instead, you really want to know why you have the fever, because if the doctor knows why, then he or she can give you choices that should  make you better. It’s the same deal with the observed global warming and associated symptoms (for example, the diminishing snowpack, water resources, and forests). We know the globe is warming, but what we need to know is why it’s all happening, and then we have a real advantage—we (society in this case, including voters) can prescribe treatments to fix it. Fortunately, climate scientists have a very good understanding of the problem, why it’s happening, and what the choices are for fixing the problem. Remember, the science is there to provide choices and help make decisions, not to force anyone to do anything. Just like your doctor.

Of course, when you get sick, who do you listen to? Pundits on TV? Your car mechanic? lawyers? chemists? No, you listen to a person trained to understand your health and heathcare options—doctors. The new NASA climate change video should convince you that expert opinion is needed, and that the patients—all of us who live on this Earth—should listen to the experts on climate change and stop wasting time debating whether anthropogenic climate change is real or not. Climate scientists don’t doubt that emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other pollution is causing global warming and the other associated changes that are just getting more and more clear with each decade. It will only hurt us if we listen to non-experts who try to confuse or misinform the issue. As this NASA video makes clear, the issue of global warming is too serious to relegate to industry propaganda, politicians and pundits. The public debate should be about what to do about it, and it’s starting to look like this is one thing candidates might want us to think about as we approach the November elections.