<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Shindell, D.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Estimating the potential for twenty-first century sudden climate change</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">abrupt climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Africa</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Atlantic thermohaline circulation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Greenland</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ice sheets</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">late Holocene</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">late Pleistocene</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">methane</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">North Atlantic</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">rapid climate change</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">sea level rise</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">solar variability</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">United States</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">water cycle</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2007</style></year></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1860</style></number><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">365</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2675-2694</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">&lt;p&gt;I investigate the potential for sudden climate change during the current century. This investigation takes into account evidence from the Earth's history, from climate models and our understanding of the physical processes governing climate shifts. Sudden alterations to climate forcing seem to be improbable, with sudden changes instead most likely to arise from climate feedbacks. Based on projections from models validated against historical events, dramatic changes in ocean circulation appear unlikely. Ecosystem climate feedbacks clearly have the potential to induce sudden change, but are relatively poorly understood at present. More probable sudden changes are large increases in the frequency of summer heatwaves and changes resulting from feedbacks involving hydrology. These include ice sheet decay, which may be set in motion this century. The most devastating consequences are likely to occur further in the future, however. Reductions in subtropical precipitation are likely to be the most severe hydrologic effects this century, with rapid changes due to the feedbacks of relatively well-understood large-scale circulation patterns. Water stress may become particularly acute in the Southwest US and Mexico, and in the Mediterranean and Middle East, where rainfall decreases of 10 25% (regionally) and up to 40% (locally) are projected.&lt;/p&gt;</style></abstract></record></records></xml>
