Annual energy outlook 2009

The Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO2009) reference case was updated to reflect the provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) that were enacted in mid-February 2009. The reference case in the recently published AEO2009, which reflected laws and regulations in effect as of November 2008, does not include ARRA. The need to develop an updated reference case following the passage of ARRA also provided the Energy Information Administration (EIA) with an opportunity to update the macroeconomic outlook for the United States and global economies, which has been changing at an unusually rapid rate in recent months. Therefore, the difference between the recently published AEO2009 reference case and the updated reference case incorporating both ARRA and the updated economic forecast reflects more than the energy-related provisions in ARRA alone. Although future analyses will focus on the difference between the updated reference case and cases using that as a baseline and incorporating proposed changes in laws and regulations, users of EIA’s projections may want to understand the relative roles of ARRA and the change in the macroeconomic outlook in driving the difference between the updated reference case and the one presented in AEO2009.