Arctic System on Trajectory to New, Seasonally Ice-Free State
|Title||Arctic System on Trajectory to New, Seasonally Ice-Free State|
|Publication Type||Journal Article|
|Year of Publication||2005|
|Authors||Overpeck JT, Sturm M, Francis JA, Perovich DK, Serreze MC, Benner R, Carmack EC, Chapin III FS, Gerlach SC, Hamilton LC, Hinzman LD, Holland M, Huntington HP, Key JR, Lloyd AH, MacDonald GM, McFadden J, Noone D, Prowse TD, Schlosser P, Vorosmarty C|
The Arctic system is moving toward a new state that falls outside the envelope of glacialinterglacial fluctuations that prevailed during recent Earth history. This future Arctic is likely to have dramatically less permanent ice than exists at present. At the present rate of change, a summer ice-free Arctic Ocean within a century is a real possibility, a state not witnessed for at least a million years. The change appears to be driven largely by feedback-enhanced global climate warming, and there seem to be few, if any, processes or feedbacks within the Arctic system that are capable of altering the trajectory toward this “super interglacial” state.