climate models

Jonathan Overpeck and Bradley Udall summarize recent climate changes in western North America in the journal Science. They highlight that the West, particularly the Southwest, needs to prepare for even larger climate changes in the future.

Schematic view of the components, processes, and interactions of the climate system.

The evolution of computer models has increased the number of vertical ocean and atmospheric layers, as well and reduced the size of each horizontal gridbox. Current models now include up to 50 vertical layers, an increase in resolution from the time this image was generated.

By Joseph Barsugli | University of Colorado, Boulder | August 7, 2009
And Kristen Averyt | University of Colorado, Boulder
And Andrea Ray | NOAA Earth System Research Lab

This conference will bring together representatives from the U.S.-Mexican border states, federal officials, local water agencies and academia to discuss drought in the border area, including climatic drivers, the outlook for improving climate forecasting skills, the possibility of long-term drying trends in the region, and Colorado River Basin/Rio Grande Basin drought management activities.

The CPAS workshop brings together a diverse group of climate applications researchers, climate product producers, and users to share developments in research and applications related to the use of climate predictions in societal decision-making.

Using an "ensemble" of 18 global climate models and the moderate "A1B" emissions scenario, researchers at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) predict warming in the Southwest at the end of this century of approximately 5-7 degrees F for winter (December-February) relative to average temperatures 1971-2000.