cooling

The radiative forcing from the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases since the pre-industrial era is positive (warming) with a small uncertainty range; that from the direct effects of aerosols is negative (cooling) and smaller; whereas the negative forcing from the indirect effects of aerosols (on clouds and the hydrologic cycle) might be large but is not well quantified.

The amount of aerosols in the air has direct effect on the amount of solar radiation hitting the Earth's surface. Aerosols may have significant local or regional impact on temperature. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas, but at the same time the upper white surface of clouds reflects solar radiation back into space.