El Niño/La Niña

Over the past 30 days, most of Arizona has experienced temperatures at least 3 degrees F above average, according to the January Climate Outlook from CLIMAS.

Temperatures throughout the West and Southwest were cooler than average during December, with some areas reporting temperatures 6-10 degrees F below normal, according to the December State of the Climate from NOAA. Most of Texas was wetter than average, improving drought conditions in the northern part of the state.

Most of the West Coast, the Rockies and the northern Great Plains have seen unusually dry conditions for the last two months, leaving ski resorts nervous.

Over the last month, drought conditions persisted throughout Arizona and New Mexico. However, several early winter storms improved conditions slightly throughout most of the region.

Drought conditions in most of Arizona and New Mexico are forecasted to persist or intensify through the winter, according to the latest La Niña Drought Tracker from CLIMAS. La Niña conditions are also likely to persist through the winter, leading to increased chances of below-average precipitation.

According to the newest Southwest Climate Outlook from CLIMAS, October temperatures were cooler than average in northern Arizona and New Mexico, while southeastern New Mexico and southern Arizona experienced above-average temperatures.

Posted by Zack Guido | on October 31, 2011
The 2011 Water Year in Review is a summary of the information presented in the Southwest Climate Outlook between October 1, 2010, and September 30, 2011. The water year is a standard period of measurement used in hydrology because the natural seasonal ground recharge and discharge cycles are more aligned with the October-September period than the calendar year due to precipitation and evaporation. This review highlights precipitation, temperature, reservoir levels, drought, wildfire, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions.

The new Winter Outlook from NOAA predicts La Niña to gradually strengthen and continue through the winter, resulting in warmer and drier conditions for the Southwest.

The monsoon is nearing its end, but the Southwest is still entrenched in dry conditions, with a large portion of the region—including all of Texas—in extreme to exceptional drought.

NOAA and the National Climatic Data Center recently released the State of the Climate overview for August and the entire summer, and the verdict is in: this was the second warmest summer on record for the U.S. It was also dry, with precipitation averaging 1.0 inch below the long-term average.